Politics: Official Covid-19 data misgivings
Mexico is apparently starting to reopen. However, the authorities are providing the most contradictory evidence and explanations for such a move, along with incoherent and constantly shifting guidance as to what the reactivation is supposed to consist of. Clearly a battle is raging in the administration between those hoping to delay the opening until the Covid-19 epidemic subsides further (such as deputy Health Minister Hugo López Gatell), and those anxious to reopen key areas of the economy as fast as possible, including manufacturers and business groups, and perhaps most decisively, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who can’t wait to resume touring the country, a victory lap to demonstrate that, at least in his mind, he has tamed the epidemic and kept Mexico on the path of recovery.
Obviously, the official disarray predates this current debate as confusion has reigned from the outset of the pandemic, with official statistics seen by many experts as totally unreliable and policy responses at best wholly inadequate. The problem has been magnified in recent weeks as a long predicted early May peak has given way to only a gradual decline in the weekly average percentage increase in Covid-19 cases and deaths, even as both continue to rise in absolute terms. Most recently critics have pointed to an unusually wide mortality displacement that official Covid-19 data fails to address.
But those advising a "go-slow" approach appear to be losing out. There is a clear doubt about what the point is of setting June 1 as the day for lifting the contingency if 97% of the country consists of states that are still classified as being at maximum risk of infection. According to recent polls, between two-thirds to three-fourths of Mexicans prefer that lockdown measures remain in place. Furthermore, the dispute is also fueling the incipient rebellion of dissident governors, which in recent days has gained new converts.
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