Official date confirm our estimations of deceleration
According to data published by the Comptroller's General Office last week, real GDP grew 3.6% in Q3 and 3.6% from January to September. In YTD terms, growth was driven by transportation and communications, commerce, health and social services, realty and services to business, financial intermediation and education services. The bad news was fishing and hotels and restaurants.
The consumer price index has remained below 1.5% during the year. In November, it increased 0.8% YoY.
According to the August labor market survey, the unemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage point from 6.1% in 2017 to 6.0% in 2018. The number of unemployed persons was little changed grew slightly to 118,338. The drop in the unemployment rate was due to a substantial increase in informal employment.
The General Public Sector Budget for the 2019 fiscal year was approved by the Legislative Assembly on December 5th.The budget will be 23.6 billion.
The Varela Administration has put most of its foreign policy chips in the China number. A Free Trade Agreement between both countries is under negotiation, and several infrastructure projects are already part of the new economic (and political) relation. Some investment projects are more mature: the US$ 1.4 billion fourth bridge over the Canal will be built by the Fourth Bridge Consortium, integrated by China Communications Construction Company LTD and China Harbor Engineering Company LTD. and the feasibility study for the construction of a Panama-David railroad (about 500 kilometers) is already in the preliminary stages.
The three largest political parties have already chosen their candidates for the May 2019 general elections: Laurentino Cortizo (PRD, mild center-left), with a 44.5 percent of favorability in the latest poll; Rómulo Roux (Cambio Democratico, right), 23.0 percent; and Jose Blandon (of the incumbent Panameñista Party, populist center-right), 13.4 percent.
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