Oil+ECB=Turkey Decouples?

TURKEY - Forecast 26 Jan 2015 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary After a volatile year, Turkey has had a good start into 2015, the main driver being a collapsing oil price. Indeed, there is little doubt that a sharply lower oil price, bolstered by ECB tailwinds, is a great boon for Turkey’s macro balances and offers a cyclical opportunity for investors. But there is no reason to get euphoric, either.The global risk environment is jittery, local politics is tense and a deep disconnect between Turkey’s cyclical and secular stories – particularly over Turkey’s growth prospects -- prevails. Moreover, weak growth environment may increase pre...

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