Oil Sector is Key

COLOMBIA - Forecast 24 Nov 2014 by Veronica Navas and Mauricio Santa Maria
Executive SummaryThe Government is expecting the Current Account Deficit to reach 4% of GDP this year, due to reduced oil exports. However, if oil prices fell to put the average annual price at $93 this year, the 2014 CAD could be as high as 4.4% of GDP. But the impact of lower oil prices could be much more dramatic in 2015. We expect the capital account surplus to reach 5.1% of GDP this year, mainly due to extraordinary portfolio inflows. The government is expecting this surplus to fall over time, to 3.9% of GDP in 2015, and 3.4% of GDP in 2016. This also reflects the government’s more con...

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