​OMAN: Succession will be credit-positive

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 10 Jan 2020 by Justin Alexander

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A month ago, when Sultan Qaboos checked out early from a specialist hospital in Belgium we said it seemed likely that it had been determined that his cancer was untreatable and he had returned to Oman to die. Sadly, this prediction proved accurate, despite state TV claiming that he was in a stable condition. It was unclear how long he had to live and we were beginning to prepare a report into the various candidates for succession - there are at least 30 eligible royals, although only 3-4 are considered serious contenders. However, there is no need to speculate too much as we should know the answer by Tuesday at the latest and our sense is that any of the candidates would be an improvement relative to governance in recent years, as an ailing Qaboos had been unable or unwilling to take difficult decisions. The fact that the deficit was $4.9bn in the year-to-November, the same as in 2018, despite several revenue windfalls such as the sale of 10% of the Khazzan gasfield, is indicative of this.The death of Sultan Qaboos is an historic moment for Oman. He ascended to the throne half a century ago at the age of 29, deposing his isolationist father and creating modern Oman. Despite its golden years as a maritime empire in the 19th century, Oman in 1970 was a poor and undeveloped country, with only a few miles of paved road and a single hospital, riven by conflict. Qaboos tamed sectarian and regional separatism, forged a neutral foreign policy (playing a positive role as a mediator), developed its hydrocarbon resources and opened up to foreign investment, bringing it up on par with its wealthier Gulf neighbours in many respects. He managed to do this without undermining the war...