One battle won, but the war will continue
In an inaugural session of Congress presided over by Anabella Azin, President Noboa’s mother, the official party ADN achieved total control (as of now) of the Assembly, placing Nils Olsen as president and Mishel Mancheno as first vice president. It also gained a majority in the important Administrative Committee (CAL) and joined forces with six members of Pachakutic, who placed Carmen Tipul as second vice president.
The alliance with Social Christians was not stable through all the votes, and this party lost one of its four legislators, who joined the ADN in order to be elected a member of the CAL. The alliance with the six of the nine legislators from Pachakutik elicited a public statement from this movement, criticizing their decision and applauding the three remaining legislators, who joined forces with Revolucion Ciudadana.
The dynamic of the different votes revealed that the ADN has 74 votes that may be somewhat reliable but has not yet secured the 77 needed for most decisions. It is also evident that constitutional amendments, which require a two-thirds favorable vote from the legislators (101 votes), will almost certainly not receive approval from the debilitated, yet still important Revolucion Ciudadana bloc. However, some partial reforms, including eliminating the perverse Citizens Participation Council, have a good chance passing with 77 votes if that is the path selected by President Noboa as an alternative to the lengthy and risky process of a constitutional assembly.
The National Assembly is expected to appoint the members of the 15 permanent legislative committees in its next session. Of these committees, four are critical to promote employment and growth: the Economic and Tax Regime, Economic and Productive Development, Labor and Social Security, and the Committee on Constitutional Guarantees and Human and Collective Rights. Achieving a majority in these committees is critical to guarantee that the necessary reforms in the labor, economic, and political sectors that were announced and promoted by Noboa at least reach the plenary sessions for a vote.
Minister of Government Jose de la Gasca and National Assembly President Nils Olsen will have to expeditiously increase their learning curve on governing the Assembly and consolidating durable alliances to overcome the weaknesses evidenced in the first session.
Revolucion Ciudadana was left out of the directorate of the Assembly but has enough experience to torpedo the executive initiatives. Also, Ecuadorian political history, in which two or three votes can change the destiny of important decisions, clearly continues. One battle was won, but the war will continue.
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