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BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 Nov 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

There was no surprise regarding the Copom’s decision to keep the Selic rate at its current level of 15% per year, nor were there major changes in the language of the statement that followed the meeting, despite some progress in two (perhaps three) of the dimensions previously emphasized by the Central Bank in earlier committee meetings.

Inflation expectations have improved somewhat, both for 2025 and for the relevant horizon, now defined as the 12 months ending in June 2027. The improvement was more pronounced for 2025 than for the policy horizon, where expectations fell from 4.1% to 4.0% compared to the previous decision (it is worth noting that we refer to the current horizon, even when discussing the September meeting).

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