Politics: One year on, the presidential succession process heats up

MEXICO - Report 12 Jul 2022 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

Ever since AMLO got the ball rolling on the incumbent party’s presidential succession efforts over a year ago by beginning to signal his preferred nominees, the 4T camp has been gearing up for the battle it will face two years from now. Although any campaigning for 2024 nominations is legally prohibited until late 2023, Marcelo Ebrard, Claudia Sheinbaum and Adán López are now spending weekends attending local party meetings around the country as materials backing their respective candidacies have begun to appear in many cities despite warnings from electoral authorities that they are risking stiff fines and the prospect of being ruled off the ballot. Nevertheless, Morena continues to build on the momentum such preemptive campaigning and its recent success in state elections gave it.

Although the national leaderships of the PAN, PRI and PRD remain formally committed to running as a coalition, and polls show it could have a far stronger chance in 2024 by going together, there is still no obvious unity candidate to head up such a ticket, and the PRI is increasingly mired in internal faction fights — a situation AMLO is actively stoking by unleashing a media offensive and raising the prospect of criminal proceedings against the leader of that party after he failed to back the government’s energy reform proposal this spring. And two months after a group of other former State of Mexico governors visited ex-president Enrique Peña Nieto in Madrid to agree on a strategy for keeping that state in the PRI column at all costs in the 2023 gubernatorial elections, AMLO announced on July 7 potential charges against Peña for possible acts of corruption and money laundering for having allegedly obtained after leaving office 26 million pesos between 2019 and 2021 that were transferred to an account in Spain, where he currently resides.

But new hope for a strong opposition coalition has emerged in the form of a growing social movement called the National Civic Front. This movement could emerge as a decisive factor in the presidential election.

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