Only Moderate Growth of Consumption, Despite Positive Signals

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 21 Oct 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore

Growth of retail sales in the restricted sense (excluding cars and construction materials) was surprisingly strong again in August. Graph 1 shows that in the quarter through August, these sales expanded at an annualized pace of 10.5%, showing continued strong acceleration in relation to the first quarter of the year. Last week the latest data on net new hiring in the formal sector (CAGED data) also showed strong growth, with 211,000 new jobs created in September. The temptation in light of these results is to consider that consumption will accelerate in the next quarters. However, we believ...

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