Politics: The outgoing Congress - what it achieved and what to expect

MEXICO - Report 10 May 2021 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

The first round of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s three years of changes to the country’s laws and constitution ended on April 30, as the outgoing Chamber of Deputies assuredly will never meet again, and the full Congress convenes on September 1. The initial package of reforms was far-reaching, both in terms of the issues addressed as well as the depth of the changes introduced. These include new laws or changes to existing legislation on outsourcing, new Electricity Industry and Hydrocarbons Laws redefining energy policy, changes to the Federal Labor Law concerning the minimum wage and workers’ rights, additions to different laws on crimes involving violence against women and human trafficking, reforming the judicial system, and the rights of the country’s indigenous and Afro-descendent communities, among many others.

Nevertheless, these changes have met with fierce resistance, both from opposition parties, some autonomous government agencies, and the business community. Of particular significance are the judicial setbacks AMLO has suffered in the courts and regulatory bodies regarding his energy policy, particularly the Electricity Industry Law, which has been definitively suspended. The other centerpiece of AMLO’s energy policy, the Hydrocarbons Law, is now before the Supreme Court.

Given such hurdles, to a large extent the future of AMLO’s policies and his entire Fourth Transformation (FT) project rides on the results of the upcoming June 6 elections to the Chamber of Deputies. Morena and its coalition partners are expected to do very well at the polls, but the big question is whether they will win the two-thirds qualified majority they need to automatically approve legislation without needing the support of opposition parties.

The makeup of the incoming Chamber of Deputies could also determine whether AMLO can move full-steam ahead with his plans to reform the judicial system and the National Electoral Institute, which he feels is biased against Morena and the 4T, and other autonomous government agencies. A sweeping victory for Morena and its coalition partners will make life much easier for AMLO and his plans, particularly on the legal front.

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