Special Report: Pakistan-Central Asia and the prospects for a post-Afghan war scenario
Afghanistan has recently received a lot of media attention due to increased violent attacks conducted by extremist groups, amidst peace negotiations between the US and the Taliban. President Trump has announced his intention to pull out US troops from the country and US officials have been holding peace talks with the Taliban since last October. Despite the latest round being cancelled by Trump, regional players see a peace agreement as the most likely outcome in the short-term, particularly, since the US is gearing up for general elections next year, and Donald Trump is seeking his re-election. In addition, fighting in the Northern mountainous provinces of the country usually remains at its lowest level during winter due to geographical constraints, and thus, skirmishes and attacks are expected to decrease in that area in the following months, creating a better climate for talks to take place. The peace negotiations will have two phases: first, during the interim phase, US officials will negotiate the removal of the 14,000 troops from the country in exchange for the Taliban’s commitment not to allow terrorist organizations to shelter in Afghanistan. The Afghan government is excluded from this phase and it will only be during the second phase that Afghan and Taliban representatives will agree on a political road map. There are several different configurations under which the agreement could be shaped: elections with a Taliban political party participating, an Afghan-Taliban transitional coalition... To make things more complex, presidential elections are scheduled for September 28 in Afghanistan.
The longest war the US has fought so far costs approximately USD 50 billion every year. According to a reliable estimate, since 2001, the US has spent USD 975 billion on the conflict, its second most expensive campaign in history after WWII. The prospect of Washington withdrawing and the Taliban acquiring political power is conditioning regional dynamics. Pakistan has an optimal geographical position to profit from the new political order in Kabul. However, Pakistan will have to deal with some security issues in order to maximize its chances of consolidating itself as a bridge state for Central Asian resources in their journey to global markets.
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