Past performance is no guarantee of…

TURKEY - Report 28 Feb 2022 by Murat Ucer

GDP increased by 9.1%, y/y, in Q4, broadly in line with expectations, and up from 7.5% in Q3, while sequential (q/q) growth (in calendar- and seasonally adjusted terms) slowed to 1.5% in Q4, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter (Graph 1).

It is worth highlighting that the output gap was still positive in the final quarter of the year by our calculations, i.e., the Turkish economy was operating well above its potential, using a standard estimate for potential or trend output (Graph 2).

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