Perfect Alignment of the Stars Lowers Inflation

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Aug 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore

As expected, the IPCA showed significant deceleration in July, at only 0.03%, which is even lower than the IPCA-15 for the month, which had reached 0.07%. With this, the IPCA over the 12 previous months amounted to 6.27% (Graph 1), slightly below the upper bound of the target interval. The movements of the stars follow the laws of physics, making the occurrence of particular alignments perfectly predictable although rare. In the present case, the “perfect alignment” is just such a rare event. Or, to use another analogy, it’s hard to win at roulette by betting on a single number, but bettors...

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