Peru: Referendum on a Constitutional Assembly

PERU - In Brief 27 Apr 2022 by Alfredo Thorne

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On Monday and with the approval of the Cabinet, President Pedro Castillo and Prime Minister, Mr. Anibal Torres, submitted to Congress a draft proposal calling for a referendum on a Constitutional Assembly due on October 2nd, and at the time of mid-term State and Municipalities elections. The draft is inconsistent and according to several constitutional lawyers cannot be approved as it is. But beyond the legal details, our current Constitution grants Congress the final decision. To start, the draft must be approved in the Constitution Commission, where the government political party, Perú Libre, has minority. Moreover, provided the draft moves on, in Congress the legislation has to be approved by two-thirds of the congress members in two different legislatures; or by simple majority, that is, 66 votes and then in a popular referendum. The government has neither the two-thirds majority nor the simple majority. Against this backdrop, one questions what President Castillo’s strategy is. We can only speculate on his real intentions. Our view is that President Castillo has fallen into deep unpopularity and the General Attorney Office may soon open investigations on embezzlement. To turn the focus in a different direction, he has opened a new, probably even more risky debate--the Constitutional Assembly. But according to an IPSOS poll published this morning , only 7% of the pollsters favor a Constitutional Assembly. With this proposal president Castillo has elevated the confrontation with Congress and the society. The result may be even deeper unpopularity and a greater proportion would sympathize with Castillo's resignation. But we cannot underestimate the true intentions of...