Growth accelerates, but politics and public finances remain gloomy

POLAND - Report 09 Dec 2025 by Jan Hagemejer

Recent polling from October–November 2025 shows the Civic Coalition (KO) leading PiS by several percentage points—a shift driven partly by PiS vote erosion rather than only KO gains; fragmentation on the right (Konfederacja, KPP) and personal clashes among right-wing leaders have weakened PiS’s position, while President Nawrocki’s frequent vetoes and refusal to rubber-stamp nominations have intensified institutional conflict. Economically, Poland faces a rapidly widening fiscal deficit and rising public debt, even as growth accelerates, driven by public investment and EU funds, and inflation has slowed enough to prompt monetary easing (the NBP reference rate was cut to 4%), creating a policy mix of fiscal strain, political realignment, and moderate macroeconomic improvement that is shaping uncertain electoral and governance scenarios for 2026–2027.

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