Poland in mid‑2026: frozen politics and a cooling economy
Poland enters mid‑2026 with a mix of frozen politics and a cooling economy, which together create growing strategic risk. Party polling has barely moved in months: KO leads , PiS is clearly second, the two Konfederacjas occupy the right‑wing periphery, and the rest of the field is fragmented. Yet this stability points toward a post‑election deadlock rather than durable governance. Cohabitation with President Nawrocki has degenerated into low‑quality, personalized conflict, while the KO looks tired, complacent and increasingly right‑leaning, as underlined by its defeat in the Kraków recall referendum and its mounting list of unfulfilled promises. At the same time, GDP growth has slowed on the back of weak private consumption, weather‑hit investment and a softening labor market, and although inflation remains within the NBP’s band, new cost‑push signals are appearing just as contentious decisions on defense financing, energy transition and relations with Ukraine, the US and the UK sharpen existing political divides.
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