Economic growth continues but politics have become even more fragmented

POLAND - Report 27 Feb 2026 by Jan Hagemejer

Poland entered 2026 with a favorable near-term macro mix. GDP growth strengthened through 2025, inflation fell back toward the NBP target band, and the 2025 fiscal outcome surprised on the upside. Yet this improvement coincided with deepening political and institutional friction that can constrain the policy mix. The 2025 expansion was driven mainly by consumption, while private investment remained comparatively weak, leaving growth more exposed to labor-market cooling and external headwinds (especially via industry and exports) despite ongoing public and EU-linked inflows. Disinflation enabled a gradual easing cycle by the MPC, but persistent service-sector and core dynamics, along with wage pressure, imply a conditional, “wait-and-see” normalization path rather than rapid cuts. Overarching these macro trends is heightened political volatility: party fragmentation, far-right gains, and cohabitation tensions with President Nawrocki are creating selective paralysis in lawmaking and raise the reputational and expectations-management stakes for institutions such as the NBP and the MPC.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Must have at least 8 characters
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2026 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.