Policy rates hiked anew

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 15 Nov 2018 by Romeo Bernardo

Citing the need to be proactive in managing the many external and domestic risks, the Monetary Board today raised its policy rates by 25bp, bringing the overnight RRP rate to 4.75%, a cumulative 175bp increase year to date. Even as it continued to tighten policy, it presented inflation forecasts showing a dramatic decline in its 2019 inflation, from 4.2% previously to 3.5%, due to two developments: (a) the passage in the Senate today of the rice tarrification law, which will move rice imports away from quantitative restrictions to a more market-based tariff regime, and (b) the suspension of the second tranche of the excise tax on oil under the TRAIN law. The BSP had earlier said that the passage of the rice tarrification law would cut its 2019 inflation forecast by 0.7%. Per monetary officials, the latest rate hike anticipated a similar US Fed rate move in December. Given current data, we think that this will be the last rate increase for the year.

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