Politics Clouding the Economic Horizon

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 04 Nov 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Executive Summary There will be no way for the government to repeat in 2014 the high economic stimulus dose applied in the last presidential election year (2010), which succeeded in boosting GDP growth to 7.5% that year, but also left an inflationary legacy that raised the 12-month IPCA measure above 6.5% in 2011. Unlike in 2010, the international economic climate is currently unfavorable (and by all indications will not change substantially next year): the country will not benefit from higher commodity prices, and will face a cycle of rising interest rates throughout the world. The current...

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