Poor print, a very tough road ahead

TURKEY - Report 04 Mar 2024 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 4.5% in February, with the 12-month CPI inflation rising visibly to 67.1%, y/y, from 64.9% in January. Producer price inflation was 3.7%, m/m, with the 12-month PPI-rate also rising to 47.3% in February, from 44.2% in the previous month. The slippage in our forecast, which mirrored median forecasts of around 4%, stemmed largely from a higher-than-expected food (and non-alcoholic beverage) inflation. The latter rose by a whopping 8.3%, m/m, in February with the 12-month inflation in this sub-category rising to 71.1%, y/y, from 69.7% in January, entirely on the back of a surge in processed food inflation.

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