Poorer in Q3, Richer on the Whole

TURKEY - Report 12 Dec 2016 by Murat Ucer

Today’s GDP print showed that the economy contracted by a sharper than expected 1.8% in Q3, y/y, markedly worse than our expectation of “weak growth in moderately positive territory”. The sharp drop partly owes to a higher base, as we now learnt that – based on today’s new GDP series – the Turkish economy had grown 5.9% in Q3 of 2015, y/y, versus 3.9% according to the previous series. For 2015 as a whole, the Turkish economy expanded by a rather impressive 6.1%, it turns out, versus 4% in the old series (Graphs 1-2). Considering all the turmoil experienced last year, this is a very high growth rate indeed. Another puzzlingly strong performance pertains to 2013 -- the year of taper tantrum and Gezi unrest – in which the economy apparently registered a whopping 8.5% growth, vs. 4.2% in the previous series.

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