​Post-Eid update

TURKEY - In Brief 06 Jun 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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Friday isstill administrative holiday in Turkey, but markets will be open, hence I wanted to update our readers on three matters of import. While the focus of investors may be on S-400s and to a lesser extent on Istanbul elections, it is important to begin with the growing humanitarian crisis in Syria’s Idlib Province, where clashes between Assad’s regulars and pro-Turkey rebel militia has the potential to change the regional game, and trouble Turkey with another million Syrian refugees. Idlib War: It goes beyond Erdogan vs Assad The joint Syrian-Russia bombardment of outskirts of Idlib city continued during Eid al Fitr, while skirmishes around the critical Southern highways connecting Assad-held territories to the East and West escalated significantly. So far, up to 200K refugees are reported to have piled up at camps around the Turkish border, clamoring for Turkish Armed Forces to do something to stop Assad. UN warned about a humanitarian disaster of Biblical proportions, while Trump weighed in urging Assad and Russia to halt this mindless bombing. My best understanding of the unfolding war is as follows:Russia is pressuring Turkey to tame Hayat Tahrir al Sham and allied radical Islamist militia to disarm, but is not yet willing to annoy it in fear of losing it to US-NATO again. Additionally, Putin may not yet wish to gift whole of North-West Syria to Assad and Iran. The best analysis of Turkey’s strategy comes from a Russia expert, Maxim A. Suchkov, who wrote for al Monitor the following: “The whole situation has been long coming. But as Russia expects it be solved via dealings with Turkey, Erdogan has his own views of what Russia should do. The two most common spec...