Post-election scenarios, a first take
With the clock rapidly ticking down to the historic rendezvous on March 31, AKP candidate Murat Kurum appears to be edging out Imamoglu in the key battleground city of Istanbul. Incumbent Mansur Yavas in Ankara and new candidate Cemil Tugay in Izmir appear safe. The race is likely to witness trend reversals in the coming days, as local alliances are formed and reformed. CHP and IYIP need to end inner-party strife to combat Erdogan’s seductive promises on the campaign trail.
Political turmoil is unlikely to end with municipal elections. Our base-case scenario now entails leadership contests in CHP and IYIP. It is plausible that after a national sweep of municipalities, the governing administration will set its eyes on a new constitution. Mehmet Simsek is more likely than not to keep his job after the elections, alleviating a major investor concern, but it is doubtful if the economic stabilization program can achieve any results, if Turkey were to schedule yet another ballot in early 2025. In any case, Simsek has his job cut out as Erdogan’s election spending wave hits domestic demand like a hefty dose of anabolic steroids for body builders.
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