​Pre-ECQ developments

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 31 Mar 2021 by Romeo Bernardo

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The following data released this week show a mildly improving economic picture before the surge in covid19 cases that led to the current lockdown.Government yesterday released February’s Labor Force Survey showing over 2.1 million of the nation’s working age population returning to the labor market. This is good news especially with most of these, or 1.9 million, classified as employed. However, of those who were able to find jobs, nearly 1.3 million were identified as underemployed, with the mean hours worked per workweek remaining below 40 and on the downtrend. Meanwhile, with the number of unemployed still climbing, the unemployment rate inched up to 8.8% while the joblessness rate (unemployed + underemployed) rose from 23.3% to 25.4%.CHART 1.Jobs reportSource: PSANational government spending rose 37% in February, the highest since the economy first went into lockdown in mid-March last year. Available expenditure details show over P45 billion (13.5% of the total) comprised equity releases to government financial institutions (DBP, Landbank, Philguarantee) to support lending and guarantee programs for sectors affected by the health crisis. Data for public infrastructure performance, government’s key economic stimulus program, are not yet available.CHART 2.National government spending performanceSource: BTrMeanwhile, mobility has fallen with the surge in covid19 cases, more markedly in Metro Manila which, with 4 surrounding provinces, was placed under a bubble lockdown last March 22. The downward trend is expected to continue this Holy Week, especially with the hard lockdown (ECQ) in place. CHART 3.Google mobility: outside residenceSource: Google