Politics: Presidential nomination battles heat up as it becomes less clear who the future candidates will be just two weeks out
Claudia Sheinbaum remains the favorite for the Morena presidential nomination and Xóchitl Gálvez for the opposition Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) with just over two weeks to go before the two coalitions that will face off against each other next year choose their respective standard bearers. However, the considerable turbulence that continues to roil both camps means neither woman is yet ensured of appearing on the ballot next June.
The uncertainty is greatest within the opposition camp. Xóchtil got off to a strong start in the initial round in which candidates collected signatures of supporters, an edge that reflects the depth of her support among independent voters. But her closest rival, the PRI’s Beatriz Paredes, placed a strong second and over the course of the FAU’s hybrid polling/direct vote nomination method Paredes has a chance to prevail thanks to the support she enjoys from her party’s campaign machine. The PAN has been unwilling to commit its own organization to Gálvez, a reticence all the more pronounced as career PAN politician Santiago Creel remains in the race.
While Claudia Sheinbaum probably has the Morena nomination locked up, more strident accusations by chief rival Marcelo Ebrard about Morena state governors and federal officials illicitly funding the Sheinbaum campaign and stacking the deck against him have not only clouded the outlook for Morena nomination process but perhaps more importantly tarnished the party and its eventual nominee. Marcelo knows that he holds the key to legitimize or delegitimize the contest as he plays what appears to be his last card. Whether he will succeed in convincing AMLO that a failure to nominate him will be a disaster for Morena (improbable) or is simply setting the stage for launching a campaign in a minor party nominee is yet to be seen, but the damage is done.
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