Politics: Presidential popularity high but uneven, with considerable voter support for the INE
Despite most opinion polls showing that President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador enjoys broad majority support, with the average giving him a 65% approval rating, GEA-ISA estimates put the figure at 54%, with voter disapproval at 40%. This is largely unchanged since September. In the most recent election, the GEA-ISA projections were the closest among all the opinion polls to the actual outcome.
Nevertheless, analysts are somewhat baffled that AMLO can maintain and perhaps even increase his support when the country is clearly not doing very well in key areas such as the economy, poverty, public security, and the pandemic death toll. There is a noticeable difference in the types of response offered by AMLO’s supporters and his opponents regarding the basis of their support or lack of support for him. AMLO’s followers tend to support him based on emotional considerations, such as personal identification with the President, hope for change, and his good intentions, while his detractors base their stance on more objective factors, such as the administration's poor results, which can be measured quantitatively.
On specific policy issues the numbers are not so rosy for AMLO. On the president’s public security policies only 44% of those polled say they have resulted in less violence, compared to 48% who indicate otherwise. Although AMLO claims corruption has been eradicated, 76% say it still exists. More significantly, only 37% of voters feel the country is on the right track, compared to 45% who say Mexico is on the wrong track.
An important development with potential short-term consequences for AMLO’s remaining three years in office are public perceptions of the National Electoral Institute, which has been under constant and intense attack from the president and his supporters for its alleged impartiality. In the latest poll, 73% give high marks to the INE, a significant increase since September. The results regarding whether voters feel the INE acted impartially in the last elections were similar (69%). This might not prevent AMLO from attempting to reign in the INE, but the political and social cost of doing so may be quite high.
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