Politics: Presidential recall referendum, main implications
The results of the presidential recall referendum may be considered as a good or a bad outcome depending on the comparisons one makes. Its implications for the 2024 elections do not favor the president, and it can be projected that the fight to control the INE and the legality of elections assume major importance for the immediate future.
There were no surprises in terms of the percentage of those voting in favor or against recall as it was widely expected that the outcome would be overwhelmingly in favor of the president: roughly nine to one. It is impossible, however, to draw a single reading or interpretation of the degree of voter turnout (16.5 million votes cast), which ultimately depends on the comparisons one draws in relation to previous contests. In the coming days we will witness an intense debate and political fight over the narrative as to whether or not the 15 million votes in favor of keeping AMLO was high or low.
With the country so deeply split between supporters and detractors of the president, it is highly unlikely anyone would be swayed by the outcome from their pre-referendum positions. In this sense, we can expect a continuation of the familiar degree of division, polarization and passions.
Two major issues loom in the short term. The first is the president’s fight to pass a political reform package aimed at disputing control over the INE and the Electoral Court and providing Morena an advantage in future elections. The second will be the legal challenges against the role the government and Morena played to get voters to participate in the referendum.
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