Primaries suggest a defeat of the government in November

ARGENTINA - In Brief 13 Sep 2021 by Esteban Fernández Medrano

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As of this writing, with more than 98% of the votes scrutinized in most provinces, including the City of Buenos Aires, and almost 97% in the Province of Buenos Aires, the results of the primary elections are final enough to conclude that the ruling coalition, Frente de Todos (FdT), suffered a considerable political defeat. Although the actual mid-term election will be held on November 14, and the primary's main goal is to choose between pre-candidates of the same party, the fact that it is simultaneous and obligatory allows us to interpret the voters' preferences between parties. If in the mid-term elections in November voters repeat their current voting preferences, FdP would not gain seats in the Lower House, as initially expected, but would lose 3, ending with 111. More importantly, in the Senate the Peronists/Kirchnerists would lose as many as 6 senators, ending with only 35 seats. The government would lose the required 37 seats to have its own quorum. Juntos por el Cambio (JxC), on the other hand, would gain 5 senators, totaling 34 seats in the Upper House, and maintain its 116 members in the Lower House. As we pointed out in our last report, confidence in the government was negatively affected over the last year and a half by the economic consequences of a draconian lockout and the government’s credibility losses, due to its double standards. Still, the electoral outcome of the primaries for FdT was worse than expected. For example, in the Province of Buenos Aires, FdT (Victoria Tolosa Paz) obtained only 33.6% of the votes, compared to the 38% harvested by JxC (22.9% for Diego Santilli and 15.1% for Facundo Manes). In the main electoral district of Argentina, whe...