Economics: The progress and outlook for the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-being
The Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-being projects spending of 5.6 trillion pesos between 2026 and 2030, including an additional 722 billion pesos this year. That is close to 2% of GDP and is directed mainly at energy. However, its financing is in doubt: public revenue in the first half of the year came in 3.2% below the programmed amount, and deferring projects only shifts the problem to later years. There is also no information on the projects already started, the selection criteria, or the social evaluation of the portfolio, and the progress figures diverge. Inegi’s gross public capital formation shows strong growth, while the Ministry of Finance’s figure shows direct public investment falling -27% YoY in real terms in January–June.
The underlying constraint is the weakness of the rule of law and of judicial independence. It weighs most heavily on mixed contracts in which the State retains control, above all in Pemex and CFE. Added to this is the risk of losing investment grade, which would raise financing costs and hurt minority partners. These risks could ease only with specific policies and signals of certainty, not with just the announcement of the Plan.
Among this week’s indicators, industrial output in August 2026 rose 0.6% month over month and 3.6% year over year in seasonally adjusted terms, the fourth consecutive month of positive change. For the year to date (January–August), industrial activity grew 0.8% compared with the same period of the previous year.
By sector, construction did not increase month over month in August 2026 but maintained a high annual increase (7.9%). Manufacturing rose 1.2% and 3.2%, respectively, which appears to signal the start of a recovery in an industry that had recorded negative growth rates over the past two years.
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