Public opinion on national elections under a ceasefire

UKRAINE - In Brief 13 Jan 2026 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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While Kyiv is going through another blackout in freezing 10–15°C weather, it’s a good moment to add a few more brushstrokes to the broader picture of Ukrainian public sentiment. The peace-deal plan currently being discussed—and one that Donald Trump believes Vladimir Putin is still willing to accept—would require Ukraine to hold elections shortly after a ceasefire begins. How this would actually happen still sounds like something out of a fantasy world, but let’s assume this hypothetical scenario becomes reality. So what do Ukrainians think? 59% reject this idea and insist that elections should be held only after the war has fully ended and a final peace agreement is in place. At the same time, the graph below shows that support for holding elections as soon as possible is growing: from 19% in March 2025 to 33% in December. The situation is highly divided. Elections could be extremely dangerous for the country, especially under wartime conditions (and a ceasefire with Russia would be fragile at best). At the same time, a series of corruption scandals and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s weak performance on multiple occasions have clearly increased public demand for a change in leadership. I can’t rule out the possibility that Russia might accept some kind of deal primarily to push Ukraine into elections and trigger internal instability. That would likely be their second-best option after continued attempts to plunge the country into a prolonged blackout during harsh winter conditions. So far, they appear fully focused on forcing a “peace deal” through blackouts and pressure campaigns. Other scenarios may follow only if current blackout “peace-making process” fails.