Q1 GDP growth was down nearly 10% from last quarter

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 17 Apr 2020 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this issue:
• The terrible first quarter numbers that China posted were not unexpected. What did interest me was to try to understand the extent of the increase in household savings available for what Chinese social media has taken to calling “revenge” consumption. In my opinion the recovery of consumption in the second quarter (assuming no further spread of Covid-19 in China) is likely to surprise on the upside.
• Still, unless we have an exceptionally good second quarter, it will be extremely hard for China’s GDP growth to exceed 2-3 percent this year, even assuming a substantial increase in public-sector infrastructure spending.

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