Q4 Growth: Surprises Never End

TURKEY - Report 31 Mar 2017 by Murat Ucer

The economy grew at a better-than expected 3.5% pace in Q4, y/y, compared with the consensus and our forecasts of around 2% and 2.5%, respectively. The driver on the demand side was a whopping increase in private consumption spending, which grew by 5.7%, y/y, while the rest of the spending components – government consumption, total investment and exports – looked relatively subdued. On the production side, industrial sector growth appears to have markedly outpaced agriculture and service sectors, while finance and communication sectors have registered surprisingly strong growth rates (Graph 1; Tables 1-2).

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