Questions I've been frequently asked since my last report

ARGENTINA - In Brief 28 Aug 2025 by Joaquin Cottani

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Here are my answers to the main questions market participants have been asking me as the midterm election approaches. What do the polls say about President Milei's chance of winning the midterm election? Current polls position Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) as the favorite for the October 2025 legislative elections, with an average advantage of 10-15 points over Kirchnerism at the national level and a solid lead in key districts such as CABA and, to a lesser extent, the province of Buenos Aires. However, the high number of undecided voters, the fragmentation of the opposition, and the evolution of the economy (especially inflation and employment) will be decisive. The opposition, particularly Peronism, faces the challenge of unifying itself to compete effectively, while LLA could consolidate its power in Congress if it maintains these trends. 2. Is there data on how unpopular measures such as the presidential vetoes of disability and retirement laws or the suspicions of corruption derived from leaked audios have affected Milei's popularity and the results of the latest polls? The Torcuato Di Tella University reported, in a survey prior to the scandal (first two weeks of August), a 13.6% drop in the Government Confidence Index (GCI) compared to the previous month, attributed to unpopular measures such as vetoes to disability and pension laws. Suspicions of corruption stemming from the audios of Diego Spagnuolo, former director of the National Agency for Disability (ANDIS), have had a significant impact on public perception of Javier Milei's government, according to recent surveys and social media analysis. However, despite the perceived gravity, the immediate e...