Quo Vadis Mr Erdogan?

TURKEY - In Brief 17 Jul 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

---

Executive Summary: Erdogan’s reinvention in progress, preview of a critical week and Ukraine grain deal This Special Brief is filed separately from our Weekly Tracker because of time differences between USA and Turkey, and my impending trip to NYC where I shall be visiting members of our GSP audience. It has a somewhat different format in the sense that like the Weekly, I’m addressing three different but related topics. Finally, the methodology is somewhat different. As our long-time readers would know, I can’t help but make premature predictions, most of which end up firing in my face. Nevertheless, Erdogan’s reinvention is such an important topic and so widely discussed in global financial media that I thought making premature, gut-feeling inspired predictions have more value added. President Erdogan continues to surprise every day, every new day, the latest of his maneuver being an excruciating tax hike on oil products and natural gas, which are almost certain to undermine his popularity. What happened to intensely populist Erdogan, who deferred pain rather than slapping it on his voters, who never missed an opportunity to pick up a fight with the West and wrapped himself in the shroud of heterodox economic policies? This is the topic of my lead essay. I think Putin’s precarious stance in Russia abroad, and the advice from his new strategy team are instrumental in changing his thinking. Humans change behavior to reap certain rewards, which is certainly true for Erdogan. Can he make progress towards his objectives, and if so, when? I have a gut feeling that he will see some relatively quick returns on his investment and stay on the righteous path longer than generall...