Quo Vadis, Turkey?

TURKEY - Forecast 15 Apr 2018 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The Turkish economy closed 2017 with turbo-charged growth -- of 7.4%, and heightened vulnerabilities as a result, with inflation running at double digits and the current account deficit at a disconcerting 5.6% of GDP. Going forward, the government has one priority in mind, which is to sustain this performance through next year’s local (March 2019) and general/presidential (November 2019) elections, but it’s highly doubtful that this is feasible. How this tension will play out, is the key question that stands ahead of us. With monetary normalization underway and short-term funding costs o...

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