Rates on hold, but door left open for future accomodation

ISRAEL - In Brief 24 Feb 2020 by Jonathan Katz

Rates will remain on hold for now. The MPC noted that inflation continues to be low, January's CPI surprised on the low side, and both headline and core inflation have moderated, but the MPC sees this is due mostly to shekel appreciation. They are also aware that y/y inflation may be negative in coming months, but they expect it to return to the lower bound of target (1%) by in the second half of the year. The economy continues to grow according to potential, and the labor market is tight. Fiscal policy will be restrictive in 1H20, slowing growth. Global risks moved higher due to the cororavirus, but they see this as temporary and expect a quick rebound .In this statement, the MPC notes that if the virus continues to spread and will impact Israel, they will act:"The Bank of Israel’s assessment in this scenario is that no significant macroeconomic impact is expected in Israel. If the crisis persists and spills over into additional countries, and particularly if strict preventative measures are required in Israel, it is expected to have a more significant impact. In such a scenario, the Monetary Committee has a range of tools to make monetary policy more accommodative."We think that the door is still open for a rate cut in April.

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