Economics: Reallocations reflect shifting priorities
By analyzing the budget cuts and reallocations, as well as what the administration is actually spending or failing to expend, we can get a clear indication of the course of public policy changes that might otherwise go undetected.
In real percentage terms, the 2019 federal spending budget reflected a clear reorientation of public policy, with two of the largest ministries charged with providing services directly related to social rights, Health and Education, seeing their budgets slightly lowered in real terms compared to 2018, even as two others, Wellbeing and Labor, obtained major increases.
But even at ministries that appear to be enjoying budget stability in the aggregate, important adjustments have been made to social programs. The extent to which they are being axed or shuttled from one ministry to the next, as well as the unprecedented levels of under-spending, even after accounting for adjustments the administration authorized to their respective budgets, is significant. It comes as no surprise that a newly-installed government might struggle to spend all of the funds appropriated for each and every program, especially a government bent on totally transforming the country, but it can be troubling when such under-spending is running in some programs in the neighborhood of 80%.
Many of these moves tell us much about the direction in which the government is headed, but unfortunately they also betray the extent to which decisions to launch or cancel projects and programs or to re-allocate funds are almost never backed up by proper evidence, or were made on the basis of incomplete or mistaken analyses. Nor are assessments being conducted that could help guide budget reallocations for the second half of the year.
That lack of planning and research is likely to add to public spending pressures that can mount considerably as the year progresses and public revenues continue to flag. This is especially troubling given the lack of evidence of any serious effort to develop a coherent budget as well as a perceptible lack of planning and assessment in social policies that suggest a government whose actions are decided on the basis of political calculations more than any serious approach to the public interest.
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