Recent Data Indicate the Recession is Getting Worse

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 Oct 2015 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The latest data confirm what was until recently only a suspicion – that GDP in the third quarter contracted by around 1%, or an annualized figure of 4%. The most recent numbers also undermine the hope that GDP might stabilize in the fourth quarter. Both the tightening of financial conditions and the sharp declines in various confidence indicators suggest that GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 will contract further.

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