Reconciling the incompatible

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Forecast 02 Jan 2020 by Alexander Kudrin and Evgeny Gavrilenkov

The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced mixed impressions, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions. The latter complicates forecasting, and at a glance it remains unclear where the overall economy is heading, as trends in some segments are looking up, while others indicators point downward. There are reasons to believe that once again, the official statistics were unable to capture structural changes occurring in some segments of the economy, such as retail and construction.

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