Reelections loom on the horizon

TURKEY - In Brief 13 Aug 2015 by Atilla Yesilada

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Today’s summit between AKP leader Davutoglu and CHP’s Kilicdaroglu failed to produce a break-through, with both leaders declaring that Turkey is probably heading for reelections. We now assign 90% probability to a reelection before the turn of the year, possibly on 22th of November. Yet, as Kilicdaroglu stated in his post-summit press conference “24 hours is a very long time in [Turkish] politics”, stay tuned to this channel for further surprises, mostly on the manner of how we head for the ballot. According to Davutoglu, the parties exhibited deep chasms on foreign policy and education which killed the possibility of a coalition government. Kilicdaroglu’s take on the meeting was more startling. According to him, AKP never made an offer for a durable coalition government, merely proposing an election government the sole purpose of which would be to lover the 10% election hurdle. In any case, both leaders admitted that re-elections are now the most likely outcome. Yet the plump lady is yet to sign on this soap opera. Both leaders will now try to engage MHP leader Bahceli. Davutoglu wishes to hold the reins of the government during the election campaign, for which purpose he needs Bahceli to support a motion for the parliament to dissolve itself and enact a law for reelections. Kilicdaroglu hopes to try a last time to convince Bahceli to support a CHP minority government. I think Bahceli has already shut his party off to all offers and will not participate in any active way in any of these endeavors. I expect AKP to petition the Speaker of the Parliament to convene the Grand Assembly to vote on reelections, where MHP will remain on the sidelines, thus passively allowing ...