Reserves up, politics sideways

TURKEY - Report 14 Apr 2024 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The politics author analyses the reasons for AKP’s stunning defeat, concluding that while President Erdogan’s mistakes did play a role in the defeat, by no means were they the primary factor. It is very difficult to fix these mistakes anyway. Voters who migrated from AKP to ultra-Islamist New Welfare Party have bought a one-way ticket. It is largely the strategic genius of CHP chair Ozgur Ozel that brought about the victory.

In the second politics essay, the politics author tries to divine what Erdogan will do next. He concludes that there is not much he can do given the large number of constraints he is facing. Muddle-through in domestic and economic policy will remain the norm. On the positive side, no-one wants early elections.

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