Robust budget execution signals GDP growth is steady

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 02 Jan 2020 by Alexander Kudrin and Evgeny Gavrilenkov

Rosstat recently revealed that after a weak start to the year, y-o-y GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% in 3Q19 from 0.5% and 0.9% in 1Q19 and 2Q19. The Russian Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget balance turned negative in October amid stable revenue flow as spending started to catch up with the annual plan at year-end. Relatively strong collection of non-oil-and-gas taxes hints that the economic performance this year does not look that bad. Economic growth could be higher this year than the official macro data suggest.

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