​Rumors and policy signals

TURKEY - In Brief 26 Jun 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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Thanks to AKP’s habit of conducting its internal debates behind closed doors and not releasing any useful information to the public, the scuttlebutt is abuzz with rumors, only very few of which I can verify or share with you with some level of confidence. First, Mr. Erdogan has grasped that the electorate is deeply unhappy with the repeal of Istanbul election and wants economic prosperity very rapidly.He is promising “change” but, providing no clues as to what this may entail. The statements after yesterday’s caucus and Central Administrative Council meetings were vague, while with one or two exceptions I see no signs of a direction change or moderation of hostility towards the West or CHP-IYIP in the pro-AKP press. In foreign policy, he repeats each day that S-400s are a done deal, but I stick to my base-line scenario of a swift or gradual U-turn after he talks to Trump in Osaka this weekend. Mutual jingoism with Greece concerning drilling rights in East Med escalates by the day, but it is most likely driven by domestic consumption purposes rather than being a harbinger of real trouble. In terms of economic policy, it is worth reminding our audience that Erdogan is also meeting Putin and afterwards Xi Jinping in Beijing, which suggests to me that he is looking for economic favors to give the economy a quick boost. He said “We hope to announce some good tidings after the G-20 summit”. He also said the economy is improving, which suggests to me that he is no mood to call in the IMF. Some columnists suggest Berat Albayrak is on his way out, not necessarily because of the execution of economic policy, butbecause he failed to deliver Istanbul.Yet, I have little confidence ...