Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 30 Apr 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Last Friday, the CBR cut the key rate by 50 bps to 14.5%. The decision was widely expected as inflation continued to decelerate in recent weeks, pulling inflation expectations down. Simultaneously, the regulator reiterated the forecast for GDP growth in 2026 (0.5-1.5%) and offered a narrower range for the average key rate this year (from 13.5-14.5% to 14.0-14.5%), albeit with the upper boundary increased. The CBR also acknowledged that inflationary pressure may rise as the federal budget is expected to be increased soon. These statements appeared disappointing to investors. Many of them began pricing in a more cautious monetary policy. The latter pushed the OFZ yield curve higher by 20-30 bps. The FX market remains volatile. By the end of April, the government once again changed its mind about the date of its return to the market and related FX interventions. It was the fourth swing in the past couple of months. It now appears that instead of July 1, Minfin will start purchasing FX (which is stipulated by the fiscal rule but was suspended) from May 8. This step could help to limit further appreciation of the ruble amid strong energy prices. However, the ruble’s future trends will depend on intrigues surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and on the behavior of the Russian exporters on the local FX market. They have options to keep funds in CNY and receive some interest (which is close to zero) or to convert money into RUB. Decisions may vary depending on the particular financial situation in each company, with different levels of leverage, as the latter could affect their choice between the CNY and the RUB. In the seven days ending on April 27, inflation remained ...

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Must have at least 8 characters
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2026 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.