Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 20 Nov 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Despite a new package of sanctions, which included restrictions on operations with the two oil majors, the impact of the FX market is limited, and in the past two weeks the ruble remained stable. Some changes are likely starting from 2026, when the CBR plans to decrease its regular daily FX sales from R9 bln to R1.4 bln in USD equivalent. These interventions are designed for “mirroring” of FX operations by the National Wealth Fund stipulated by the fiscal rule. However, the reduced FX supply from the regulator could be somehow offset (at least partially) by higher volumes of FX sales by the corporate sector, as their FX deposits in the Russian banks grew by $20 bln in 9M25. In any case, the ruble could get some chance to weaken in early 2026. The Finance Ministry placed R1.7 trln of floating-rate OFZs last week, which were bought primarily by several commercial banks. In such a way the government almost neutralized the potential problem of excessive supply of sovereign bonds on the primary market. To remind, the aggregate issuance plan for the FY25 was set at R7 trln (from which R5.4 trln were placed in 10M25 and another R2 trln in two weekly auction days of November). We expect the Ministry of Finance to continue placing fixed-rate papers in the coming months, while the yield curve may move down as the problem of excessive supply was almost neutralized. On top of that, the likelihood of further key rate cuts looks higher as inflation pressure softens. Besides, in December the Government plans to issue bonds in CNY to refinance maturing on December 4 sovereign Eurobond (Russia 25) worth EUR1.75 bln. In the case of successful placement, the necessity in borrowings via t...