Russia and COVID-19: confusing words – perplexing actions
Given that in the second half of April the number of new daily COVID-19 cases in Russia fluctuated around 5K people, many officials and experts hoped that this number could come down going forward, thus bringing some hope that the lockdown measures could be gradually eased in mid-May. However, in early May this figure jumped by a factor of two, fueling some doubts about the efficiency of the government's quarantine policy. It looks as though the problem is not whether Russia needs tighter or looser restrictions, but is largely about the performance-monitoring and enforcement of the already imposed quarantine measures. Traditionally, the Russian power structures were more concentrated on the punishment of the intruders, rather than preventing violations and discouraging people from misbehaving. Such practices could have had a rather negative effect.
Russia’s epidemiological situation looks mixed and unclear, and easing of the existing restrictions in Russia after May 11 (as was initially considered in principle) is unlikely given that the daily figure of 10K new cases looks very high and the decline of those daily cases can only be very gradual. Therefore, apart from the poor economic performance that is guaranteed in 2Q20, the next quarter may not deliver an upturn.
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