Russia recognizes occupied territories: the play comes to the end

UKRAINE - In Brief 22 Feb 2022 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
Everything develops in line with the scenario we described here. Russia recognized occupied territories of Donbas and Luhansk as independent states and deployed ‘peacekeepers’ in those territories. We see this development as a face-saving withdrawal for Kremlin. Moscow has been raising stakes thus testing reaction both of the Western countries and Ukrainian society (and authorities). The US demonstrated a strong position and managed to wake up the EU. Ukrainian authorities kept a dovish line without any intention of aggression while Ukrainian society demonstrated readiness to stay firm and fight. This layout is very unfavorable for Kremlin since a long war is a threat for Russian leadership by itself – no clear reason why thousands of Russian soldiers should die in Ukraine. Kremlin most likely identified a need to step back but Vladimir Putin needed a prey for his audience to declare as a victory. Recognition of occupied territories of Donbas is such a prey. Unless Kremlin wants to ‘embellish’ new expansion to the West with open fire contact with Ukrainian army – we should expect the play to be finished over the upcoming days.

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