Russia’s economic performance has seemingly improved in 4Q20, albeit accelerated inflation suppressed real retail sales

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 28 Jan 2021 by Alexander Kudrin
According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s retail sales contracted by 4.1% in 2020. Food retail was down by 2.6%, while non-food retail dropped by 5.2%. These numbers are generally in line with expectations. As inflation accelerated in 4Q20, retail sales decreased in this quarter more than in 3Q20 (-2.8% y-o-y versus -1.6% y-o-y). Retail sales will stay in the negative territory in 1Q20, but from April, they will strongly bounce back, and in 2021 as a whole may increase by 3.6-3.9%.Construction activity was almost flat in 2020 (up by 0.1%) and increased in December and 4Q20 by 0.9% and 0.8% y-o-y. Construction statistics have been revised not only for selected months of 2021 but for 2019 as well. Most likely, Rosstat changed the numbers for previous years was also. However, since for years preceding 2019, the revised numbers have not been published yet, forecasting trends in construction in 2021 looks challenging. In any case, however, growth in this sector is expected to be positive.As was reported earlier, the industrial performance looked not bad (industry was down by 2.9% in 2020 – mostly due to reduced activity in the oil industry in line with the OPEC+ deal). Trends in the transport sector and consumer services have also improved in 4Q20.Recently reported data could prompt GKEM Analytica to revise its 2021 GDP growth forecast upward. It may happen once Rosstat publishes the full set of reappraised statistics. Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.