Russia’s external balance remains solid in 11M20

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 09 Dec 2020 by Alexander Kudrin

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According to a CBR’s flash estimate, the current account surplus reached $29.1 bn in 11M20, while the trade surplus was at $80.6 bn. The latter figure is well in line with CBR’s previous releases – trade surplus reached $64.8 bn in 9M20 and was estimated at $73.0 bn in 10M20, i.e., kept widening. The former figure deserves additional comments as in 10M20, according to a previous flash estimate released a month ago, it reached $29.9 bn, which means the current account balance should have negative in November. Still, in 11M20, the current account surplus was wider, than in 9M20 ($24.1 bn). Note that the full balance of payments statistics is available quarterly only, while monthly releases are flash estimates of selected indicators, which could be not very accurate.It looks as though it was the case with the 10M20 figure, and it was over-estimated back then. Indeed, given that the ruble steadily appreciated in November from over R/$ 79 to around R/$ 76 amid relatively low daily volumes of FX interventions, the current account was most likely positive in November. Most likely, the current account surplus will further widen in December as the oil price increased. All in all, in 2020 as a whole, the current account surplus may approach $35 bn (and potentially exceed this level), while the trade surplus may exceed $87 bn.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin