Russia’s pandemic and political update: Dull scenery puzzles the audience

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 03 Aug 2020 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

In July, Russia’s pandemic situation evolved in the same fashion as a month ago. The number of newly infected people continued to subside, albeit very slowly, while the number of active cases fell from over 245K people in mid-June to around 184K in early August. The number of daily new cases fell below 5.5K in early August from over 6.5K a month ago. The death toll remained unchanged and fluctuated around 2.2% of the closed cases (i.e., the sum of lethal cases and those discharged). Russia recently announced that mass vaccinations would gradually start in October, and the first version of the vaccine is likely to be licensed in August.

Economic activity in Russia probably continued to improve in July as restrictions have been eased despite some local outbreaks. The country’s citizens do not demand much from the government, which enables the latter to pursue a more or less conventional macroeconomic policy. People in general do not rely much on the government but prefer to deal with difficulties on their own.

Ever since the pandemic hit Russia, the trust of Russians in the country’s political elite has somehow decreased on the back of the increase of those who “don’t know” if they trust someone or not. On one hand, people did see some effort from both the federal and local authorities, but on the other hand, people had little fun during the lockdown. Opinion polls indicate that a third of the nation does not know whether or not they trust any of the country’s politicians, and together with 17% of those who do not trust anyone, it appears that half of the nation is somehow confused or dislikes the country’s developments.

Russia’s political landscape is carefully cultivated and trimmed as the system needs neither weeds nor any other kind of exotic plants – it should look like a perfect grass tennis court. Unsurprisingly, the country’s political scenery has become too dull for the local audience. The entire performance and the actors are becoming more boring, but as there are not many alternative performances in the theater, people have gotten confused and started to yawn - nothing more.

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